CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-07-19T21:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-19T21:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32064/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] CME visible in the SE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Overlaps with CME: 2024-07-19T22:24Z in the field of view of the coronagraphs. The source is likely a filament eruption stretching diagonally from S40E20 to S20W02 starting around 2024-07-19T18:30Z with dimming seen in SDO AIA 193 and post-eruptive arcades beginning around 2024-07-19T20:30Z as seen in SDO/AIA 304 and 193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery following a data gap from 2024-07-19T13:35Z to 22:55Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-23T19:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-23T04:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32068/1
Model Inputs:
2024-07-19T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-31.0, Lat.=-21.0, Speed=793.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2024-07-20T02:19Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-23T04:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-24T12:00Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-21T16:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240720_021900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 76.82 hour(s)
Difference: 15.80 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-07-20T14:59Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement